Knicks: K-Gang, a 2 month review

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

The first two months of the Knicks season has wrapped up with the Knicks at a very respectable 22 and 10 record (through 1/4/13).  I went back and took a look at how the K-Gang did, comparing it to the Knicks and my expectations overall.  Details for the K-Gang are here if you would like to find out more about our little contest and standings are updated at least weekly here.

As a group, I was surprised that we did so well in the first quarter of the season (20 games).  It may have been because we were optimistic about the Knicks and they proceeded to start out of the gate hot, being the last team to lose their undefeated status, but we finished the quarter at a respectable 58% correct rate against the spread.  Since then we have come back down to earth, only posting a 39% correct rate.  I went through our picks and if we picked the Knicks more than 50% (5 or more out of 8), we only posted a 13 and 12 out of a possible 32 games.  There were 7 even splits which yield a "no decision" (nd).  However, if there were at least 6 picks for a team in any given game, the K-Gang posted a 10 and 6 record.  Not too bad.

The fortunes of the K-Gang and the Knicks look to be closely related.  After a great November start, the Knicks seemed to regress a little.  Part of that was their 3 point shooting percentages came down drastically, but this may have been due to the many injuries they sustained.  In the chart below, you can see the Knicks points for (PF) and points against (PA) had a decent difference throughout the first four weeks but the gap would close as the month of December and their averages for the last two weeks were very close to league average.  Hopefully, the team stays healthy in the new year and makes another run like we saw in November.  It certainly is more fun when the Knicks are winning.

Back to the K-Gang.  Because the spreads only come out the day of the game and the K-Gang did not want to check in every day for a game, we opted to pick the games only once a week.  For this reason, the spreads were calculated internally and could vary from the spreads at gametime.  One major cause of the difference, besides the inexperience of calculating spreads, was the inability to accurately factor in injuries.  There was a lot more variability in estimated to actual spread as the season moved on.  This could have contributed to the K-Gang being less accurate in their picks for the month of December.  I would wager that underestimating Raymond Felton's contribution played a major part of that as well.  He was playing great until he went down with a broken finger.

Nonetheless, there was some consistency to the K-Gang and that is the current leader.  Justin has ended the week either on top or with a share of the top spot for 7 out of the 8 weeks.  He led the league with a 12 and 3 record for the month of November punctuated with a 9 game winning streak at one point.  Naturally, he was the easy choice for KMOTM (K-Man of the Month).  As stated, December was a little rougher.  We had co-KMOTM winners in Beau and John T, but they only finished the months with an 8 and 7 and a 6 and 9 record (note: record is not the only factor for KMOTM), respectively.

All in all, these two months have been a good time.  I reconnected with some friends that I have not spoke to in awhile and am a little more consistent with the other people on the list.  I am hoping that we improve in our picks as this year goes on and a possible increase in K-membership next season or even for the second half of this season.  Here's to a fun 2013. 

New York Knicks - Knicksametrics

Quick post to point everyone to the Knicksametrics Gang (or K-Gang) page.  This lists all the current standings for our contest.  After the first 2 games, only Beau G remains undefeated.

Knicks have been very impressive these last two games, beating the Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers by a combined 34 points.  The defense has been strong and Carmelo is leading by example.  As I had posted in May, Carmelo may be poised to take the MVP this season.  This is am uphill battle because LeBron and Kevin Durant will be maintaining their great games, and there will be other contenders to the throne.

Speaking of contenders, can the Rockets be good this year?  I like Harden and Lin in the backcourt, along with Omer Asik playing defense and grabbing rebounds.  In fact, they are one of the five teams that I have chosen for my NBA League Pass Choice because I am expecting an exciting season with them.  I also expect Daryl Morey, GM of the Rockets, to make another big trade before the deadline.  They will have a "Lin-derella" season but will end up losing in the first round of the playoffs.

I also want to thank Iman Shumpert for bringing the 80s back.

I have never been this into the first few games of a new season before.  This should be fun.

NBA: The Summer of Wow and the Season of Eh

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.   

Every off-season brings its fair share of 'Wow' moments. Trades and signings that may not have been expected. These days, there are so many ways to get your information, one often is under the illusion that there will be no surprises. That every situation has been considered and we hear about every disgruntled player's daily thoughts (see: Howard, Dwight). However, this summer yielded many 'Wow' moments. The Jeremy Lin signing was unbelievable when it happened because I am a Knicks fan and thought at the time that they weakened the team, but who would have thought that players would have signed with supposed hated teams like Steve Nash with the Lakers and Ray Allen with Miami? As Simmons on Grantland many times, these rivalries really only matter to fans and the media. But even still, the Lakers rebuilding and creating a team that consists of Kobe, Pau, Nash, AND Dwight Howard? That is a Wow moment. Ray Allen leaving the Celtics was a semi-Wow moment, even if the Celtics are probably better off now. But just when you thought it was all over, the Thunder announce the trade of James Harden to the Houston Rockets. Quite simply:

Was the Thunder move really unexpected? I talked about how the losing teams in the NBA Finals often retool and "break up the band" here. Additionally, analysts have repeatedly talked about how the Thunder are a small market team and the commitments to Durant, Ibaka and Westbrook have put the Thunder in a tough spot with the salary cap. Harden was also the sixth man because his style overlapped with Durant's and Westbrook's. In the end, this move may have been the best for both Harden and the Thunder. Does any of this matter though?

Even if I hope the Knicks will play better, and there are now many teams that I am really interested in, will anyone be able to unseat the Miami Heat? This is the year LeBron has transcended, right? He is going to prove to us that he is the best player ever by being even better than he was last year. The Heat are going to be unstoppable supposedly, so there really is no point to watch. Nothing is ever certain, and that is why we watch. If one of the teams I watch and like actually supplant the Heat this year, then we are better off. If LeBron gets better, then we are even better off. It has been 20 years since we saw greatness, and we may be on the threshold to see it again. So win-win. Now is a great time to be an NBA fan. It has to be. I recently dropped Major League BaseBall and am about to drop the National Football League, so the NBA is what I am doubling down on. I even bought the NBA League Pass last year during the Linsanity tour, and am considering buying it again even if it is a little expensive.

Of course, the Knicks will be on the list, especially since me and 7 of my friends will be participating in the contest. The other 4 teams I am tentatively choosing are:

Los Angeles Lakers - Steve Nash is one of my favorite players and what he did last year was nothing short of amazing. The load could be lightened with this Lakers team, even if the pressure is now heightened. But this is a team that I have to keep an eye on. Despite what I think of Dwight, he gives Nash the best chance for getting his first NBA title, and Kobe his 6th.

Miami Heat - Whether or not LeBron makes his transcendence, it is a must watch season. They played so well last season and gave us so many highlights, there is no way I can leave them off the list.

Houston Rockets - Jeremy Lin kicked off my interest in the Knicks again. I thought it was going to be another blah season for the Knicks, but he made me interested again. Now he is on a young Rockets team and paired with James Harden, another of my favorite players. It will be interesting to see how they do.

Denver Nuggets - This team will be amazing to watch this year. George Karl's style of coaching and the pieces they have in place: Gallinari, McGee, Faried, Andre Miller and now Iguodala. It will be most fun.

Although this list may change, the Miami Heat and of course the Knicks are the only teams that stayed on my League Pass list (I am only signing up for League Pass Choice, which allows you to follow 5 teams throughout the year). The Chicago Bulls, LA Clippers and OKC have dropped off the list. Celtics are not on the list because they are local and other teams I have considered are Brooklyn Nets and the Minnesota Timberwolves. No matter what teams I choose for League Pass or what happens, it looks like I will be keeping a close on eye on this season. I am expecting to see some greatness and I suspect I will see it. I cannot wait.

Knicks - One Week Before Season Begins

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

With one more week to go, I have enlisted my friends to participate in a contest to determine who is best at picking the team that will cover against the spread. Full rules and bios of all participants are here. The contest will encompass the Knicks schedule for the 2012-2013 season. First set of games from 11/1 - 11/11 can be selected here: Click here to enter. The games covered are:

NYK: Midsummer Check-in

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks. I wanted to get one post in before I take a long break and start writing again when the NBA season starts up.

First, congratulations to Lebron and the Miami Heat for their championship. This was a well played playoffs and they certainly deserved to win after coming back in the Indiana series and the tightly contested series with Boston.

Second, thanks to everyone that read and contributed to my postings. Whether you sent me a link or we had a discussion about it, I do appreciate it and it makes my basketball watching that much more fun when I have people to share it with.

Lastly, thanks to my family, especially my wife, for putting up with this minor obsession I have. I am sure I have talked her ear off and been annoying but they have always been there. This was a great year and I had more fun than I can remember in recent years. The prospects for next year are even brighter. My local team, the Boston Celtics, look to be even better than last year, despite losing Ray Allen to a division rival. And my favorite team, the Knicks, have an interesting team that may be better next year, despite some head scratching moves, that I will discuss in a few sentences. Additionally, the Nets will be moving to Brooklyn and contesting for King of New York status. That should make for some interesting storylines.

Now, back to the Knicks. What the heck happened? Heading into the offseason, the Knicks were in the enviable position of not only being good right now, but had a solid core to be great in the future. With a veteran, high caliber cast of Carmelo, Amare and Tyson Chandler leading the front line, they had great pieces in the backcourt with Jeremy Lin, Landry Fields, and Iman Shumpert. I even liked their supporting cast of Jared Jeffries, Josh Harrellson, and Steve Novak. Of the last six players I named, only Novak and Shumpert are returning, but Shump is coming off of knee surgery so who knows what the recovery time and form he will return in. I hated seeing Fields and Jeffries go because it seemed like they were great locker room guys, but I could sort of understand it. Fields contract was a little high and parting with Jeffries to get Camby and Thomas is sort of an upgrade. Not matching on Lin was really confusing though. He showed he could play and the fans LOVED him. I am not sure what the owner, James Dolan was so mad about with the Lin situation. Supposedly, he was upset with Lin and his team for going back to the Houston Rockets and getting a better deal. They could have offered Lin 4 years $6 million and Lin would have signed it. That's the most upsetting part. Besides that, they told Lin to go out and get the best deal he could. Of course a team with enough foresight and need would sign him to such a deal. How could an owner not acknowledge that this is a business anyway? All players acknowledge that they are just part of a business, that they could be traded, waived, or signed solely based on "business reasons". How is an owner unable to acknowledge this and call Lin disloyal for looking for the best option? But, enough about that. This will probably work out for both parties. It is once again Melo's team. They just have more pressure to produce without Lin than if they had kept him. Lin will also flourish in Houston. They will not be a great team, but he will probably average a 17 and 6 for the season.

Good luck to all, let's just stay away from the negativity. This is just a game afterall and I know we read and listen to analysts all the time, but I was surprised how negative Steven A. Smith was with the Lin situation. He was the last to come around to admit that the kid could play and was the first and loudest to say good riddance when he signed with Houston. Sadly, there may be other factors to Smith's assessments than purely from an analytical standpoint. I was given two examples here and here (Thanks BG!). I hope Smith truly felt those things and was not motivated by the fact that he shares the same agent as Melo.

But enough ugliness. I am still assessing how my predictive powers were this year (pretty horrible) and am going to challenge myself to improve next year. I will be sending out some invites next season to see how I stack up against friends in predicting wins and losses next year. I am thinking about the parameters (most likely a simple for or against the knicks with the spread), but will fill you in as the season approaches. If you are interested in joining me, send me an email at malajas@inbox.com. Have fun for the rest of the summer. I will write more soon.

NBA Finals: Game 3 and the NBA Finals Curse

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.

I wanted to get a post in before game 3 started on Sunday (6/17/2012).  I just want to say that this has been the epic matchup that we have all been waiting for and it has been evident in the ratings.  A whopping 16.7 million viewers tuned in to watch game 2 of the Finals.  Just to give you some perspective, American Idol is  regularly the top watched show and it drew 15 million and 21 million in the last two shows of its latest season.  If you are one of those people that does not watch basketball, I suggest you turn on the TV this Sunday and give it a try.  In my mind, this is reaching the point like the World Cup in soccer or even the Olympics.  We would never watch these sports regularly, but it is reaching the point where a bit of history is being made.  True greatness is happening right before our very eyes and you do not want to miss out.  You will either be seeing LeBron James or Kevin Durant win their first championship.  Both of these players are the ones who will be carrying the torch (so to speak) for the NBA in the upcoming years and will be entering the conversation of greatest ever in a short time.  This is like watching Tiger Woods win his first Masters or Michael Jordan win his first NBA Finals.  It is not to be missed.

I still believe Thunder will win this series, but it most likely hinges on game 3.  As I stated in a prior post, the winner of game 3 will win the series abot 80% of the time.  And in a series such as this one, statistics matter.  This will be a hotly contested series and will most likely go to seven games.  The winner of game 3 will have the advantage the other team will not be able to dig themselves out of.  That being said, here are my reasons:

1.  Kevin Durant has scored 17 and 16 points in games 1 and 2, respectively.  Meanwhile he has only scored 32 and 36 points.  It feels like he is deferring to his teammates early on, but look for him to take over earlier.  He must know now that he cannot be stopped and will score at least 40 points twice.  I expect a 50+ point masterpiece from him at least one of these times.

2. We have seen LeBron and Wade's all in this series.  They have carried the load and do not have much more.  Their teammates will not continue shooting at these high levels which will leave it all in LeBron and Wade's hands.  I just do not think they have anything left.

3. OKC is more fun.  They can play both ends of the floor better and have proven it.  They just need to play for the whole game.

4. It seems like OKC is on a mission.  Last year, when Dallas won the Western Conference finals, Dirk Nowitzki went through the motions and accepted the trophy, but he left shortly after.  You could tell that he was not satisfied.  The same with OKC and their supporting cast.  When game 1 ended, Kevin Durant went to the sidelines and hugged his friends and family.  They had just won game 1 of the NBA Finals, something new to them and had never happened before in OKC.  A joyous occasion right?  Not to them.  Not one of them even cracked a smile.  When kids come home from school after an uneventful day, they are greeted by smiling parents.  Kevin Durant's family did not express any emotion.  Like Durant, they know there is a mission, and that is an NBA championship.

The NBA Finals Curse

In sports, there are a lot of superstitions.  Some seem to be true, like the Madden curse or the Sports Illustrated Jinx.  When we were going through the Dwightbacle, or Dwight Howard's inability to give his team a firm commitment.  One commentator suggested that the Orlando Magic were cursed.  The Magic reached the promise land in both 1995 and 2009 lead by their All-Star centers, but were promptly dispatched by the eventual champions in just a few games.  They then never went back to the Finals with Shaquille O'Neal or Dwight Howard and the stars eventually left (assuming Howard leaves soon).  I decided to check and see if there was, in fact, a curse.  Did the losers of the NBA Finals retool a little too much and send their teams on a downward spiral?  It is hard to imagine a team that comes so close one year, but then collapses a couple years later.  Let us take a look:

 

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NBA Finals Losing Teams 1999 - 2011

Year	Team	A Few Years Later
1999	New York Knicks	12/22/2003. The day Isiah Thomas was hired as President of Basketball Operations. The franchise goes in a tailspin
2000	Indiana Pacers	11/29/2004 Malice in the Palace - 9 players suspended for 146 games
2001	Philadelphia 76ers	Coach Larry Brown leaves in 2003, coming back to defeat them in 2005 and then going on to win a championship. Best player Allen Iverson demands a trade in 2006
2002,2003	New Jersey Nets	Jason Kidd leaves in 2008, Kenyon Martin traded to Nuggets in 2004, Richard Jefferson stayed until 2008, although many injuries. Now they have to deal with Kris Humphries and his recent divorce with a Kardashian
2004	Los Angeles Lakers	Shaquille O'Neal leaves in 2006. Kobe accused of sexual assault in 2003, goes to trial in 2004.
2005	Detroit Pistons	Ben Wallace leaves for more money to the Bulls, the beginning of the end
2006	Dallas Mavericks	Michael Finley leaves to rival Spurs and goes on to win a championship
2007	Cleveland Cavaliers	July 8, 2010 - The Decision, LeBron goes from a favorite player to a villain overnight
2008	Los Angeles Lakers	Not much, one of few losing teams to come back and win a championship shortly after
2009	Orlando Magic	Dwightbacle happened, Howard expected to be traded or leave in 2012 or 2013
2010	Boston Celtics	Big Three breaking up in 2012
2011	Miami Heat	Too early to tell

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Looking through this list, not every team went the route of a complete implosion. However, it does appear that the losing teams made a large portion of the negative storylines for the NBA in the last 13 years. Losing stars to free agency or demanded trades seems to be a prominent headline as well, ranging from a seemingly quiet move such as Ben Wallace leaving Detroit to LeBron's decision which became a prime time special on TV. With a few exceptions, such as the Lakers and Mavs, there really is no plan B, and the teams suffer in the division cellars for quite some time. There is no distinguishable pattern except that reaching the top game does shine a certain light on you and many do not deal well. One thing is for certain, and a lesson I learned in third grade: some lose and learn from it, while others just cry about it. Oh yeah, and losing sucks.

NBA FINALS: My Prediction

I thought long and hard about this one. But I could not do it, and will have to go with OKC in 7 awesome games. Did not have time to post a full blog today, but will later this week.

NBA: About 80% and the NBA Lottery

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.

Quick link.  This video made me respect Kyrie Irving a little more. 

Wow, what a series of unexpected events.  After all four teams controlled home court through the first four games, the Celtics and the Thunder went on to win game 5 in their respective series.  The best part was that they did it on the road.  The Thunder then finished off the Spurs last night coming back from a 15 point deficit at the half.  Unbelievable that a seasoned team like the Spurs would give up such a lead.  I will have to go back to the tapes, but it seems like the Spurs have given up double digit leads in 3 out of the last 4 games.  It could have gone the other way, but the Thunder is just that good.  I thought they were still a year out from reaching their potential (a championship), but they are playing at that other level.  It seems like Durant's shot just gets prettier as the playoffs go on.  And he is also doing it from further and further from the rim.  I am really happy to have caught so much of the playoffs this year.  There have been some truly great games, and being able to watch the Thunder get better as the finals get closer, is right up there with the 2008 season when the big three of the Celtics finally got theirs.  It is always nice to see a team work hard to develop chemistry and have it pay off in the end.

Speaking of the Celtics, they pulled off quite the upset the other night.  I aimed to do write ups of the series early in the weeks, but decided to wait until the game 5's were played.  I was happy I waited.  The Celtics played a mediocre first half but still hung around, followed by a great second half where they traded blows with the Heat and emerged the victor.  I thought they were done when Miami pulled ahead, but they kept sticking around, capping it off with a Paul Pierce 3 pointer over LeBron to put the Celtics up by 4.  Remember ABOUT 80%.  I try to pay attention to all the statistics the talking heads throw at us throughout the series, and 80% is about the percentage that the team will win in many situations.  Whether it be home court advantage, the winner of game 1 or game 5.  For example, whoever wins game 1 goes on to win 76% of the series.  Whoever wins game 5 will win 84% of the time.  If you are a gambler, you now know the odds to take if ever in that situation.  Even still, I am not sure I would take the Celtics in this series.  I know that I did not predict the Thunder or the Celtics to win their series, but this is what I would have wanted to happen.  After the Knicks lost, these are the two teams I would have wanted to see meet in the NBA finals.  Hopefully the Celtics can make that happen tonight.  If not, they only have a 30% chance of winning game 7. 

NBA LOTTERY

With the conspiracy riddled storyline of the Hornets attaining the number 1 pick, I decided to focus on the number one picks of the last 13 years.  You can read all about the conspiracy theorists if you like by simply searching for "NBA lottery conspiracy".  What I wanted to look into was what all the number 1 picks have done.  This should be a no brainer right?  The number one pick should be the easiest pick in all the draft, and their is usually a consensus on who should be chosen.  Here are the last fourteen number one picks and what they have achieved. 

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NBA Lottery Number 1 Picks from 1998-2011

Year	Player	Drafted By	Position	Num Years	Finals App.
1998	Michael Olowokandi	LA Clippers	C	10 yrs	0
1999	Elton Brand	Chicago Bulls	PF	13 yrs +	0
2000	Kenyon Martin	NJ Nets	PF	12 yrs +	2
2001	Kwame Brown	Washington Wizards	C	11 yrs +	0
2002	Yao Ming	Houston Rockets	C	9 yrs	0
2003	LeBron James	Cleveland Cavaliers	SF	9 yrs +	2
2004	Dwight Howard	Orlando Magic	C	8 yrs +	1
2005	Andrew Bogut	Milwaukee Bucks	C	7 yrs +	0
2006	Andrea Bargnani	Toronto Raptors	F/C	6 yrs +	0
2007	Greg Oden	Portland Trailblazers	C	5 yrs	0
2008	Derrick Rose	Chicago Bulls	PG	4 yrs +	0
2009	Blake Griffin	LA Clippers	PF	3 yrs +	0
2010	John Wall	Washington Wizards	PG	2 yrs +	0
2011	Kyrie Irving	Cleveland Cavaliers	PG	1 yr +	0
2012	Anthony Davis	NO Hornets	F/C	??	??

"+" denotes still playing in the NBA

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This chart illustrates that there are no guarantees when you have the number one pick. In fact, 4 teams have had two shots at it and it's arguable that only the Chicago Bulls have a chance at a championship in the near future. There are already three players no longer in the league: Olowokandi, Yao Ming and Greg Oden. One supposed golden rule of basketball is that you can't teach height and you will not be faulted for choosing a center. But that line of thinking may be going away. Of the 6 centers chosen in the last 14 years, only Dwight Howard came close and played in the NBA Finals. Most teams seem to be coming to that mindset, as 3 out of the last 4 number one selections have been point guards. Of the 14 players chosen, there have only been 4 MVPs between 2 players: LeBron with 3 of them and Derrick Rose with the other. Finally, I hope that I am not surprising anyone, but there were 4 NBA Finals appearances and no championships. Based on history, it does not bode well for Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Hornets, assuming he is the one chosen.

Teams need to rethink how they choose players. There should be less of an emphasis on the draft. Free agency and trades should be the means to success. For the draft, I would analyze players more on buy in than on talent. It would probably get me fired, but would I want to go through what the Magic have with Dwight Howard? I would probably not pick him based on this past year. I am sure there are ways to evaluate a player to see if they would become a head case. It should not be that hard. I wish the best of luck to Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Hornets, but only one thing is certain when I look at that chart, and that is there are no guarantees.

NBA: Conf Finals & Building Dynasties

 To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.

Before I begin, I wanted to thank Jon for a comment and a link.  The ESPN article reinforces what I had discussed in the last post about Kobe's woeful crunchtime performance, along with a stat that players whose strength is iso's (Hi Melo), should consider passing out of them more often.  "Hero Ball" is the title of the article, a term that I instantly hated when I first heard it.  I hope it fades away soon, along with the terms "monetize" and "swagger".  I believe basketball to be a team game with all my heart, but I also am not oblivious to the irony that I first fell in love with basketball because of the hero ball tendencies of Michael Jordan. 



It is set.  All the big 3's were triumphant in their series.  Some showing dominance, while others displayed their flaws.  Spurs vs OKC, Miami vs Boston.  Even if I did not predict these matchups, this is exactly what I wanted to see.  Old guard vs new guard is the theme of these conference finals.  On one side are the teams that have won and had many predicting their exit many moons ago.  On the other are the teams that will usher in the new age of the NBA.  They consist of future MVPs and possible championships.  These will be epic battles that I will be TiVo-ing.

SAS vs OKC

8-0 and 8-1 in the playoffs.  No two teams have displayed their dominance more than the Spurs and the Thunder in the playoffs.  They have been so good, that many have predicted the team that wins this series will be the team to hold the Larry O'Brien trophy at the end of the year.  This will be a battle of epic proportions.  Kevin Durant will once again come through in the final minutes at least once or maybe twice.  Popovich is going to show us his master plan.  His genius will come through with methodical precision.  Once again, the Spurs will be the "boring" team because they will have the legs under them to execute to perfection.  Tim Duncan's 18 points and 7 rebound playoff average will somehow become more important than the combined 51 points a game by Durant and Westbrook.  Buckle your seats, we are in for a fun ride.  SAS in 6.

MIA vs BOS

This series, on the other hand, will not be an offensive explosion and will actually be the more boring of the two conference finals.  That is, if you do not appreciate great defense.  There will be no more than 1 game where a team will score over 100 points.  Rondo is going to have a field day, finishing with at least two triple doubles, only to be matched by LeBron's.  I like where the Heat are headed.  The Indiana series showed that Wade was The Man and LeBron was the great facilitator.  And that is the way it should have been.  There should never have been a discrepancy between who should lead the team.  Wade was always the heart of the team, and the team should be on his shoulders.  One could argue that LeBron is the better player, but I will always cling to one hard and fast rule:  the team should always follow the player who was the leader on a championship team.  As long as Miami remembers this, they will win the battle, just like when Zeus and the Olympians put away the Titans.  Miami in 6.

Building a Championship Team

All this talk of championships has made me think of whether or not the Knicks will have a chance to win one in its current incarnation.  To understand this, I took a look at all the championship teams in the post-Jordan era.  There have been 13 championships since then, with 6 teams claiming the titles, and only 2 multi-year winners.

I charted the teams and did a quick analysis on where I thought they stand now.  To me, a winning attitude begins with the top.  The owner must be all in and ready to do what it takes to win.  The management and coach must understand the ownership's message and come up with a solid plan.  The players they pick and sign onto the team must buy in and execute the plan.

This chart shows every championship won in the last thirteen years.  Each logo stands for a championship.  For example, San Antonio has 4 championships, thus 4 logos.  Additionally, if they have an MVP on their team, it is represented by the Maurice Podoloff trophy.  The higher the logo, the stronger the commitment from the owner, and the farther to the right, the better the plan by management and coach to achieve the vision of winning a championship. This chart is where each team stands now.
Detroit has largely fallen off the rails.  At one time Joe Dumars was commended for having built a team with no superstars that could compete and win a championship.  However, ownership has changed hands recently and management has been unable to replicate the success they had earlier.

The Boston Celtics are owned by a group and the Miami Heat are owned by Micky Arison.  Neither ownership had much I could find in terms of vision.  A search for Micky only yielded his net worth.  These two teams are largely dominated by Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers for the Celtics and Pat Riley for the Heat.  Both of these teams have a strong management with a dream for a team, but without full interest from the owners, there is only so far these teams can go.

The Dallas Mavericks seem to be a great team on paper.  An owner with full buy in, a coach with great experience, and an MVP on their roster.  Although I do admire Mark Cuban, I think he tends to overthink his decisions.  It is great how he turned the franchise around and built a championship, but I cannot place him any higher than the middle when he let Steve Nash walk and gave away their title defense on the hopes of getting either Deron Williams or Dwight Howard.  They are great players, but I value team chemistry more than any other strength, and team chemistry was what won the Mavs their championship last year.

The Lakers and Spurs are world class organizations on the opposite ends of the spectrum.  The Lakers have won ten ownerships under Jerry Buss, their current owner.  He has employed a who's who of coaches, and I believe with Mike Brown's plan and Kobe's determination, they are still on the right path.  The Spurs are also a great organization, but their focus is on the community.  Peter Holt has laid the groundwork for great achievement and this is executed at every level of the organization.  With what he has built, he is knocking on the door of attaining his fifth championship in a 14 year time span with the same management and MVP.  A mark that has never been achieved in the modern era of the NBA.

We have come full circle with the Knicks.  Jim Dolan, the owner, has not shown that he can stay away from meddling with the team.  Instead of a vision, he has unleashed a whirlwind of chaos.  Isiah Thomas was terrible and had a myriad of issues.  Yet Dolan still trusts him, and was one of the reasons why Donnie Walsh left after what appeared to be a successful rebuilding phase after only one year.  I am uncertain about Glen Grunwald, the current general manager and Mike Woodson, the current coach.  I have written numerous times that I think Carmelo Anthony can win the MVP next year if he can focus.  If he finds this determination, then the Knicks may have a chance to win one sometime in the next few years.  However, given their current makeup, one is all they will have in them.  They are not built for a dynasty.  But even one championship would be a wondrous thing.

NBA: Offseason Workouts

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

Let us take a quick look at this past week.  I did not get much sleep and fell asleep while watching a few games but got a good sense of how everything is playing out.

A quick rundown of where I am at in my predictions:

San Antonio defeats LA Clippers 4-0, my prediction was SAS in 5
San Antonio is on an amazing 8 game run with Tim Duncan averaging 17.6 points a game and 9 rebounds with a 54% field goal percentage.  I cannot believe he is 36 years old.  I am turning 35 this year and I know I am not a professional athlete, but I can certainly feel the years.  I cannot imagine what his body must be like, especially playing at the power forward position all these years.  More on Tim Duncan later, but I was astounded to find out that he lost 20 pounds this past offseason so that he could be lighter and not put so much weight on his bad knees.  San Antonio played a great series and became fun to watch.  I understand the prevailing thought that San Antonio is a boring team, and I was even one of those people in the past, but they are playing superb basketball that anyone should be able to appreciate.  They are so good that I expected the 24 point comeback.

OKC leads LA Lakers 3-1, mine was LAL in 6
This series is a lot closer than the 3-1 score.  It could easily be 2-2 or even 3-1 in the Lakers favor.  However, Durant is playing out of his mind.  For someone who is considered a jump shooter, he is shooting over 50% in this series, as well as providing clutch baskets down the stretch.  The crown for my favorite current NBA player is still up in the air, but he may be taking at season end.  I am sure he is happy to hear that.  But I really expected Lakers to close out games better, given their experience and that they have Kobe.  A stat that I saw during one game that I never would have thought was that in clutch situations, Michael Jordan was 50%+ in field goal percentage, LeBron is high 30%, and Kobe is a measly 25%.  Durant in this playoffs, is somewhere in the 60% range...that is purely going from what I have seen and feel.

MIA tied with IND 2-2, mine was MIA in 6
As expected, this is a battle.  I thought Miami would give two away by a few points because of a lapse in Miami's scoring, but Indiana has proven to be the real deal.  They are a complete team that plays defense, rebounds and refuses to back down.  They lack any form of star power that I bet a casual fan would not have been able to tell you a definitive starter on this team when this season started.  With a little experience, I could see them being like the Detroit Pistons that won championships earlier this decade.  I look forward to all of these upcoming games.

BOS tied with PHI 2-2, mine was PHI in 7
I am most torn about this series.  I live in Boston now and I adopted this team during the Knicks era that shall not be named.  However, I have grown to appreciate Doug Collins.  He was always a good commentator and is a great coach.  This has been a well played game on both sides, except for the 18 point meltdown the Celtics had in game 4.  What is going on with all these teams surrendering huge leads anyway?  I am considering this as a post later if I can find all the data necessary.  I think either of these teams deserve to advance.  They are playing well and will pose an interesting matchup with Miami even though it will not be as good as the current Miami-Indiana series.

OFFSEASON WORKOUTS
In Outliers, Malcolm Gladwell examines education and tries to figure out why students in lower income areas are at such a disadvantage and have such a low rate of graduation compared to those with more money.  What he found out was that it was not race, religion or quality of teachers.  He found those students were just as smart and learned just as fast.  The differentiator was how they spent their summers.  Lower income children did not go to camps or have group activities, they simply sat around, and as the new school year rolled around, they had lost more of what they learned then their stimulated peers.

This made me think about the correlation between how hard an athlete worked in the offseason and their greatness.  Again, I was surprised to hear that Tim Duncan had shed 20 pounds in order to manage the season better.  I have tried losing 10-15 pounds but it never took, so I tried to find his offseason workout routine.  Besides finding out that he used to roll tractor tires up a hill and that he postponed the start of his workout routine by a month because of the lockout, there was not much to find.  Still, the fact that he gave so much thought into when he should start working out and how much weight he should lose in order to handle the trials of a compacted season was interesting.  If he managed all his offseason workouts like this, it is no wonder that he will be in the discussion of greatest power forward ever.

Other offseason routines I found that were worth mentioning are Blake Griffin and Kobe Bryant.  What I found interesting was that Blake found "a mysterious trainer that is both radical and extreme in his approach towards fitness", and part of his training was carrying a 60 pound sandbag up a hill.  My conclusion is that he found a fitness instructor and not a basketball coach, or his game would have developed a little better than where it is now.  He is the new human highlight reel, but anyone that shoots barely 50% from the free throw line is definitely not working hard enough on the basketball end.  Kobe, on the other hand, has a sick workout.  He works out six hours a day for six days a week, running in a variety of ways for two hours and then shoots 700-1000 shots per day.  It's no wonder he will be one of the greatest.

Finally, this would not be a Knicks blog if I did not mention them at least once.  I did look up Carmelo Anthony's workout routine and ended up on this site.  It did not seem like he had much of a workout besides medicine balls and jumping exercises.  I could not find anything that would contradict anyone calling him Flab Melo.  Still, I am holding out hope that he refocuses this offseason and realizes what he has to do to bring the Knicks into championship contention.  He is currently my favorite for pre-2012-2013 season MVP.  I think this is it for him.  His window is closing to become truly great.  Would you not be incorporating Kobe's schedule if you were in his shoes?  I do not understand what these players are thinking.  You only have 8 years or so for your prime, would you not work out to be the best you could be?

NBA: 2nd Round (late) Preview and Predictions

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

Now that the first round is over and the Knicks are out of the playoffs, I can concentrate on making (mostly) unbiased predictions for the road to the NBA Finals.  The matchups are:

MIA vs IND, MIA currently leads 1-0
BOS vs PHI, BOS currently leads 1-0
SAS vs LAC
OKC vs LAL

The Eastern Conference games are not really interesting, but have the potential to be dramatic.  Two "Big 3" teams versus two fundamental, no superstar teams.  Miami, which is really a big two and Chris Bosh, will prove once and for all that including Chris Bosh was really a mistake.  Sure it looked great and made us all hate Miami more, but if Pat Riley had really thought about it and had to do it all over again, he probably would have signed LeBron and saved the rest of the money for defense and role players.  Think about how dangerous they would be if they had enough money to sign a competent veteran point guard and at least one other defense stalwart at one of the other positions for what they paid Bosh.  I have no clue who was an available mid level free agent point guard at the time, but it would have been great if they could have gotten an Andre Miller lobber type or a Chauncey Billups leadership type.  Then they could have just concentrated on defense and looked for a nice role player.  Alright, Andre Miller makes $7.8M and Chauncey $10.7, but that would have left some cap space compared to Bosh's $14.5M.  If they do not win this year, I see some kind of Bosh deal happening, especially with the new collective bargaining agreement.

Miami will win this series in 6 games.  Chris Bosh is hurt but they will not miss him unless the Indiana bigs start taking over.  Indiana is a good team and deserved the 3rd seed, but they play largely the same style as Miami without the superstars.  They put up a good fight in the first game for three quarters, but could not keep it up.  I suspect that will be the story for a large part of the series and they will squeak by with two games, getting a lucky break here and there.  Not entirely interested in this series.  Miami in 6.

The Boston/Philadelphia series is also not that interesting to me.  I have always liked the current incarnation of the Celtics, but they are playing hurt and very old.  This is the series with the potential for an upset.    I would much rather see a Boston/Miami Eastern Conference Finals, but they may not get that far.  Philadelphia just needs that one win to gain some confidence and Doug Collins seems to be very capable in keeping them focused and closing out the series.  (Disclaimer:  I am currently watching game 2 of this series and have changed the next sentence at least four times) Philly in 7.

Now for the good stuff.  I would never have envisioned saying this three years ago, or even last year, but I am looking forward to San Antonio playing the Clippers and OKC playing the Lakers.  I would also never have guessed that I would be happy to see San Antonio play well and picked them to win it all.  From the limited time I have seen them play, it seems like they are the most sound team in the NBA.  With that said, San Antonio will roll through the Clippers.  This is a 5 game series at most.  I love Chris Paul and think he is amazing, but his supporting cast lack too much and when he is off the court the Clippers are atrocious.  Sadly, they will probably end up with two more injuries along the way.  I saw some crazy stat like Blake Griffin had 38 field goals in the paint and none outside.  That is incredible and no way the Spurs allow anything remotely like that. San Antonio in 5.

The OKC/Lakers matchup is peculiar.  I know OKC is the higher seed, but are they really the better team?  About a month ago, when Durant's name was in the MVP talks, I may have thought OKC would run away with it, but it still the Lakers.  Pau Gasol may have finally come out of his funk and Kobe will always be Kobe, so the Lakers are a dangerous team.  We also cannot forget The Elbow.  And if I were a Thunder, like Ibaka or Perkins, would I take a flagrant 2 if I saw Metta taking a soft layup?  I am not a vindictive person, but I would consider it and would not be surprised if that happened.  That could potentially give the Lakers a game and thus, the series.  So tough call with this one.  I think the Lakers lose this series if Kobe becomes option 1, 2 and 3, while Gasol and Bynum fight for the rest of the touches.  However, if they play a solid inside out game, they probably beat OKC.  Lakers in 6.

I am excited for the second round.  The first round was largely predictable and somewhat boring, probably because the Eastern Conference talent is few and not that intriguing right now.  The second round, however, has a few interesting matchups.  Old school versus new school, teams versus superstars.  I think some of the series may go shorter than I predicted, but the games themselves will be a lot more fun.  This should be great.

New York Knicks: It's All Over

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

As the Knicks wrapped up their series, losing 4-1 to the Miami Heat, I learned three things about myself this season.

First, despite what I say, I cannot be impartial with teams that I have liked in my past.  The Knicks are one of those teams and I went through all the highs and lows of the season with them.  I enjoyed the team when they were at the peak of Linsanity and felt terrible when we all knew D'Antoni was on his way out.  It was fun watching a team I used to like do well again, even if they were a quick out from the playoffs.  Now if only the Mets could advance to the World Series, I would probably lift my three year ban.

Second, being an analyst is really hard.  Not that I would ever call myslf a basketball analyst, but putting your picks out there can be a tough proposition.  Unless you are the second coming of Nostradamus, you are most likely going to be wrong a good percentage of the time.  So the real trick is fooling the reader into ignoring your previous incorrect prediction with some kind of statistic or a few witty comments.  Did you know the Knicks set the consecutive playoff losses record at 13 games, dating back to 2001?  Also, Carmelo Anthony now has a career playoff record of 16-36.  That is a .308 win percentage, making him the worst out of any player with at least 50 games played.  I certainly hope that there will be more wins next year, and less marks of futility.

Lastly, it is a good time to be a Knicks fan.  I am actually looking forward to next year.  There are a few things the Knicks need to work on.  Free throws is one area.  They were 22nd in the league this year, which is kind of amazing considering they seem like they should be a good shooting team.  In addition, they need to work on closing out the first half and coming out strong in the 3rd quarter.  For a fan, this was the most agonizing part of watching them this season.  This was usually the time when teams would come back and even the score or pull away if they were already leading, as Miami did in all four games they won in this series.  I think these are motivational and focus issues which can be fixed.  I will discuss the returning players in a later post, but it seems like they will have a decent roster.  Let us hope management can fill some key holes.

BACK TO THE NBA:

Despite the Knicks being bounced out of the playoffs, I am excited to see the rest of it and see who will come out on top.  However, the first round has not been as exciting as I had anticipated.  Besides the Memphis-Clippers match up, there has not been that many battles.  One odd thing I noticed is that no series went 2-2.  There were two sweeps from OKC and the Spurs, Miami and Indiana won 4-1, and all the losing teams in had to win the last game to make the series 3-2.  We could potentially not have any game 7s in the first round of the playoffs this year.  I wonder if that has ever happened before.  One thing that always amazes me is the amount of weird stats that you will be shown throughout any game you watch.  I hope that if it does end up that there no game 7s this first round, a statistic comes up to tell me if this is the first time that has happened or the last time it happened.  I supposed it is not that hard to find it if I muster some initiative.  We only started having best of 7 series in the first round in 2003.  Whether or not there is a first round game 7, the rest of the playoffs should be more interesting and I expect it to be more intense.

New York Knicks: An Open Letter to Carmelo Anthony

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

Dear Carmelo,

I recently watched game 4 of the first round series between your New York Knicks and the Miami Heat.  The  Knicks won in a tightly contested match and you played a superb game.  Not only because you scored 41 points with 6 rebounds and 4 assists, but you were also the catalyst whenever the Knicks were down, taunting LeBron on defense and making all of the hustle plays.  There is something to be said about a star who ends up on the floor chasing after loose balls at least three times in a game.  We were amazed by your shot selection and your cuts to the basket.  You took 14 free throws, making 10.  On top of all this, you played with a smile on your face.  Like the Knicks and the rest of the New York fans, you knew you had nothing to lose at this point.  You forgot that you were down 3-0 and decided to play hard and have fun.

I want to stay on this last point for a little bit.  Fun is the reason we watch this sport and played it when we were young.  The up tempo style coupled with having four brothers battle with you on the court.  That is what we love about this game and is what we want to see when we turn on the TV or pay for tickets and go to MSG.  When my buddy Beau and I were discussing this season, we mentioned the word "fun" at least three times in a two minute conversation.  You have to understand.  When you were hurt and the Knicks amassed a seven game winning streak with Lin at the helm, it was fun.  You could see it on the faces of the players and everyone that attended the games.  There was a sense that it was going to be a good time each and every time.  As your timetable to return got shorter and shorter, there were a lot of people saying that the Knicks did not need you and that it was better if you stayed away.  Of course this was not true.  We all forgot that the seven game streak included teams that were well under .500.  Deep down we all know that you are arguably the number one offensive option in all of the NBA and the Knicks are lucky to have you.  We were just scared that you were going to ruin the fun.

Looking back at this past season and a half, we all realized that there was many flaws to this team.  You came midway through last season and the lockout shortened season of this season did not allow the team to develop any cohesion.  A lot of pressure was thrust upon you because the team traded away a large part of their team for you and New York was hungry for a championship.  However, partnerships and teamwork can not be manufactured, they have to developed through hard work and mutual compromise.  It was hard for you and Amar'e to play together.  It was even harder for D'Antoni to understand how all the pieces fit in such a short time.  The one glimpse of fun we had during the winning streak was quickly diminshed when the harder schedule exposed all the flaws of the currently constructed team.  However, after D'Antoni left, fun seemed to be on the menu again.

As the Knicks battled for the last playoff spot, you lead them to an 18-6 record, the best in the league in that span.  You earned player of the month honors for the month of April.  In my eyes, you have a solid chance of becoming the Most Valuable Player next year.  I do not think you have ever entered the MVP conversation in my memory, but I believe that you can.  This is not because of your offensive firepower, but you have emerged as a leader, and this is what we are looking forward to.  We are waiting to see you make the transcendence into the player that we all believe you can be.
The Knicks have a slim chance of winning this series.  In fact, you will most likely lose in game 5.  I do not believe that LeBron and Wade will allow this series to stretch out any further.  Nor do I think that the referees will call an even game.  This will be a frustrating game for New York players and fans alike.  However, you have shown that you can lead this team.  Despite the injuries to Lin, Shumpert, and Baron Davis, and with Amar'e and Jeffries playing hurt, the team played with a lot of heart on Sunday and gutted out a game that could have easily been lost.  It gave us an indication of what we could hope for next year.  Now that was fun.

Sincerely,
A Knicks Fan

New York Knicks: Spurs and LeBron's Mouthguard

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

Before I delve into the Knicks and their impending quick out, there are two subjects I would like to address.

SPURS.

My opinion is the same as everyone else's when thinking about the San Antonio Spurs and it is a feeling of indifference.  However, I decided to change this way of thinking.  With Poppovich's Coach of the Year award and the Spurs claim of the first seed in the Western Conference, I decided it was time to find out if I could like them and sucked it up to watch game 2 of the first round series between the Spurs and the Jazz.  I am amazed that I do not read about the Spurs more.  This team can play almost any style, is arguably one of the best dynasties in NBA history, and has one of the most outstanding NBA citizens in Tim Duncan.  But we do not talk about them.  Instead we discuss all the other "Big Threes" in the league.  The Heat, the Knicks, the Thunder and the Celtics all garner more headlines than the Spurs, who have quietly become the best team in the Western Conference and, in my eyes, the frontrunners to winning their fifth NBA championship in 13 years.  How is it anyway that the Spurs have won championships so many years apart?  1999, 2003, 2005, and 2007.  I had to look that up.  I thought they had won three championships.  Even with their championships, they are humble and assuming.  It is like they thought it was too obnoxious to win four championships in five years and decided to space it out so they could fly under the radar.  This year is different though.  With Poppovich winning the award and seemingly have the whole 82 game season planned out (66 regular seasons and 16 wins for a championship), they are finally entering the conversation.

One quick tangent about Poppovich.  I expect him to release a journal after he retires and the one page about the 2011-2012 NBA season is some crazy complicated decision tree that mapped out every possible scenario, showing the highest probability for the Spurs to win a championship.  In it, I fully expect him to have an 11 game winning streak planned so that he can sit his big three with the greater picture in mind.  In a season where the back breaking schedule caused injuries to be too frequent, can we not praise the genius of Poppovich to sit his best players and groom everyone else in order to hold them accountable to win a game on their own?

Back to my main point, I am now putting them as my top contender for the NBA title this year.  This may be due to the fact that I am typing this after having two martinis, or I just watched them destroy the "just happy to be here" Utah Jazz.  We all know the Heat are making the finals.  But we all still question their resolve to win the big one.  Front what I have seen, their big three is better than any currently out there.  They will beat any pretenders to the big three crown, whether it be the Knicks or the Celtics (even though they pretty much invented the term), as well as any big three teams that come out of the west, including the Lakers or the Thnder.  However, I suspect they will have more trouble with teams such as the Pacers or the 76ers, who play a more team oriented game.  They will still beat these two teams, but these series will expose them. Their weakness is that they still play 3 on 5.  No matter what we hope from their supporting cast, the Miami Heat bench and the other two that start the game, are still the same as last year.  Inconsistent, thus unreliable.  Because of this, any team that functions with a hive mind will push the Heat to the limit.  The Spurs are the ultimate in terms of being a team.  Sure their big three would never beat the Heat in a pickup game, but they can adapt to any style of play, something that the Heat could never achieve given their current makeup.  If the Spurs meet the Heat in the finals, I suspect many people will be disappointed with the boring team beating the exciting team.  However, it reinforces what the NBA is all about.  It is not like the Superbowl, where anything can happen, or the World Series where chance plays a bigger factor than anything else.  The winner of the NBA finals is usually the best TEAM.  That is what the Spurs are.  They are a TEAM that is prepared and hungry for a championship.  After all, it has been 5 years since their last one.  They are due.

LEBRON'S MOUTHGUARD.

In case you missed it, LeBron had a mouthguard made with the the roman numerals, XVI on it.  This signifies the number of games a team needs to win in order to win the NBA title.  I found it amusing that a commentator suggested that LeBron was more focused this year because he had that made and it was the reason why they are the favorites to win.  I am paraphrasing, but my wife said that if LeBron were truly that focused, he would have had sixteen mouthguards made, from XVI to I, signifying the number of games he had left for a championship.  I think that sums up LeBron's career thus far.  He will never win with the general populace until he truly WINS, and it seems that he does the things people expect him to do.  From only showing up in body to the fourth quarters early in his career, to the decision and the "not one, not two..." quote and now the mouthguard.  LeBron never creates his own path.  He only has a surface commitment.  He is the ultimate "just happy to be in this league" player.  This is coming from a reformed LeBron hater who is trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.  I truly hope that he does win one eventually.  I just do not think it will happen this year because of the aforementioned Spurs.

FINALLY.  THE KNICKS.

There is not much to say about game 3 between the Heat and the Knicks.  They lost as expected, despite teasing all of us for the first half.  My respect for Carmelo is continually growing though.  I have always liked him, but his effort in the last two months is truly commendable.  Despite being overmatched by LeBron and company, his play indicated that he did not want to lose this game.  I hope the Knicks faithful take that into account during Melo's next slump or when Jeremy Lin is playing well.  I also hope that the Knicks address their third quarter issues.  On a night where Tyson Chandler receives his Defensive Player of the Year award, and the first half was a battle of defenses, the Knicks still collapsed.  LeBron got his fifth foul early in the third quarter, but the Knicks still could not capitalize and gave the lead away.  LeBron came out with a vengeance in the fourth quarter, destroying the Knicks, and putting the game away.

I also do not understand why we are entertaining the return of Amar'e and Jeremy Lin.  Why force things when the series has clearly slipped away?  I say give the players who are hurt the directive to completely heal and work on the weaknesses of their respective games in the offseason.  Forget about coming back too quickly and set their sights on owning the 2012-2013 season.  Why would the Knicks management not acknowledge this now?  They have a solid team that can compete next year.  Supposing that they can bring back a solid core, and if they can address mental issues such as having a team mentality and not giving games away in third quarters, the Knicks would be early title contenders on everyone's list.  I say strive to get everyone healed both in body and mind.  That is the only way the currently constructed Knicks can compete.

New York Knicks: vs Lebron Drago

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Funny how things work.  I was on my way to work today and thought about how best to describe the current match between the Knicks and Miami.  How they are clearly overmatched and no one is predicting them to win.  Of course, I settled on the Rocky IV, one of the best movies that exemplifies the underdog versus a force of nature. The force of nature in question is Ivan Drago, an unmatched specimen in power and speed.  The natural comparison is to LeBron James, who could arguably be the best player in the NBA if he just took that next step.  I was hoping this series would play out like the movie.  The Knicks clearly getting beat in game 1 and game 2, then with a hint of desperation, throws a punch that cuts the large Soviet.  They then battle it out for the rest of the series, culminating in a knockout blow for the underdog in the final round.  I found it amusing that doing a quick search for "LeBron Drago" on Google yielded this site.  The writer was talking about LeBron and the Cavs versus the Celtics in the 2010 playoffs.  But I digress.  I went into work this morning and what was the first article that I found on ESPN.com but that Amare had punched a glass fire extinguisher case and is out for game 3, possibly for the rest of the series.  The Knicks had punched themselves in their own glass jaw, effectively knocking themselves out this year.

The game itself was a great example of how good the Heat can be.  They seemed like they were in cruise control, keeping the Knicks at arm's length the whole game.  I knew it was over when I knew every shot Miami took would go in, but I hoped the Knicks shots would.  The Knicks kept it close after the first quarter and were down by three, then doubled it to six at the end of the half.  Once again, the Knicks lost the game in the third quarter where they went almost eight minutes without scoring a field goal.  I never understood that about this team.  The one constant from this team this season is that they are always so flat in the third quarter, usually letting a team catch them if leading, pull away if behind.  They did it under D'Antoni and now with Woodson as well.  I hope this is addressed for game 3.  I would hate to see them head into the locker room with a ten point lead, only to give it away in the third quarter.

PREDICTION:
I still think the Knicks win this one.  I thought game 2 could possibly be the "get out the way, I am going to score at least 40 points tonight" statement game from Carmelo, but it will definitely be game 3.  With no Stoudemire, the Madison Square Garden crowd will demand it of Melo and he better deliver.

Knicks 106, Miami 100.

We will see how they perform and if the rest of the Knicks gain some momentum and help Melo carry the burden for the rest of the series.  Otherwise, this will not be Rocky IV, but Rocky III.  Where an immature Rocky is unprepared for the first fight and loses quickly in the first fight.  He then refocuses, and at the end of the movie, takes every punch Clubber Lang can muster and knocks him out in the end.  This may be the story of the Knicks this season.  They are just too immature and unprepared, and have to wait until next time to prove they are champions.

New York Knicks: Mea Culpa

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Wow, what a terrible game.  I was fortunate enough to have a prior commitment and TiVo'd the first game of the Knicks-Miami series.  This allowed me the luxury to fast forward through the last two and a half quarters of the game.  I guess I was a game off.  I thought game 2 would be a blowout, not this one.  It did not help that Carmelo came out flat, starting 0 for 5.  They were in it and only down by a few points for the beginning of the game.  That is, until the referees took over and had a series of bad calls, culminating in a flagrant 2 call on Tyson Chandler that was later rescinded.  A flagrant 2?  I looked up the definition of a flagrant 2 on NBA.com:

A flagrant foul 2 is unnecessary and excessive contact. This usually has a swinging motion, hard contact, and a follow through.

I do not feel that what happened falls into any of these categories.  The referee overreacted to Lebron's overreaction. Is there not a a psychiatric class we can send referees so that they can block out the raucous crowd?  It is just amazing how cognizant they are of who the home team is.  I am not saying that the Knicks would have won this game, but if you are calling touch fouls, at least call them both ways.    As I stated, this was a tough one to predict and deemed it a 50/50 game, with it being the Knicks best chance of stealing one.  Alas, it was not to be.  The Knicks did not show the resiliency of a championship caliber team when things were not going their way.  However, I think they will bounce back.  Carmelo will go off tomorrow and not make the same mistakes he had in the first minutes of game 1.  Woodson will get them more focused on defense, despite the loss of a great defender in Shumpert.  I still have faith in the Knicks and they will get better.  Hopefully in time to keep the game interesting.

PREDICTION:
Since game 1 was the blowout game and not game 2 as I had predicted, I will revise my thoughts accordingly.  Because of what happened on Saturday, game 2 will be a lot closer.  They will be playing from behind for most of the game, but the referees will let them play a little more and it will be more physical.  Unless Carmelo scores at least 30 points and gets everyone else going, the Knicks will be heading back to New York down 2.  This will probably not happen and Miami will win this one, even if I do not want it to be so.

Comments for some of the other game 1's in the league:

• Derrick Rose is out for the rest of the season.  Looks like the march to the finals has now been gift wrapped for the Heat.  Another reason why the referees should be fairer.  At least give teams the chance they deserve to compete and give fans something to watch.
• Great finish in the Mavs-OKC game.  I felt bad for the Mavs because I thought they deserved that one, but they blew the lead.  I thought it was fitting that Durant's game winning shot had to bounce around a few times before going in.  He is a great player but still has a little more to go before making the transcendence.
• Another terrible referee call that took away from what could have been a great finish.  The Celtics were on their way until that referee took the steam away and threw out Rondo.  Rondo was dumb for doing what he did, but it was a series of bad calls that led to that point.

One interesting stat is that the winners of the first game has won 78.2% of the series.  This does not bode well for my Knicks.  Nor the Celtics or the Clippers who appear to be getting blown out at the moment, two other teams I like.  Let us all hope the game 2's make all the series a little more interesting.

New York Knicks: Excitement to the Max

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.  

As we all know by now, our beloved, yet flawed Knicks team will be entering the first round of the NBA playoffs playing the Miami Heat.  As we entered the final weeks of the regular season there were a lot of matchup speculation and many tried to pick the best team for the Knicks to meet in the first round.  Like it or not, it will be the Miami Heat.  This may not have been the matchup everyone thought was best, but it is definitely the matchup all of us want to see.  I am not going to dive too deep into the pairings, whether Melo and LBJ cancel each other out, if Amare has an advantage over Bosh, or even if Shumpert and Chandler can maintain the level of excellent defense they have exhibited all season.  You can read all those articles on ESPN.  The only thing that I hope the Knicks work on is their third quarter play.  This is what gave away the game on April 3rd versus Indiana.  It is when Miami pulled away on April 15th and almost lost leads on April 17th against Boston and then 5 days later against Atlanta.  I do not mind losing hard fought games by a point or being blown out by twenty, but it is painful to watch your team build a comfortable lead and then have the other team come out of the gates in the second half to close the gap.  If the Knicks can fix that, they have a chance against any team they face.
I see most predictions stating that Miami will win in either 5 or 6.  I will analyze it game by game, working backwards starting with game 7.  The playoff format will be 2-2-1-1-1 with Miami being the first and last stop.

GAME 7.  I do not see the Knicks winning this one in Miami.  They have not been consistent enough on the road to give me faith in this.  Additionally, Lebron plays New York really well, and we will not see a LBJ collapse in the fourth quarter on this one.  However, this will be a crazy game and it will come down to the wire.  I expect a couple thrown, but missed, elbows (of course unintentional).  Wade will pull it out in the end, probably on free throws.

GAME 6.  How can any analyst predict the Knicks would lose the series in game 6?  If they make it this far, the collective will of New York fans will single-handedly take this game.  There is no way they would allow anything otherwise.  There is nothing more to say on this one.

GAME 5.  Like game 7, I do not see the Knicks winning this one.  In the unlikely scenario that they are up 3-1, the Knicks will not have the wherewithal to clinch it in game 5 when they can wait until game 6 at home (they will want to win it in front of the Garden crowd almost as much as the fans).  If the situation were reversed and Miami was up 3-1, no way do they want to go back to the garden.  They need to finish the Knicks off and start worrying about the next round, which will probably be up against a young Pacers team with no fear because they will fall into the "just happy to be there" case.   If it is tied 2-2, Miami's playing at home and its playoff experience will pull them through.

GAME 4.  This is a 50/50 game.  Too hard to tell.  Either Miami runs the Knicks out of the Garden or the Novak/JR Smith discount double check unconscious three pointers go wild and they shoot lights out.  Gun to head, I would probably pick Miami on this one.

GAME 3.  This is game 6 except with slightly more anticipation and a hint of desperation for the MSG crowd.  Going with the Knicks on this one.  If they even show a remote sign of slipping, the fans will get the Knicks back on track.  The fans think this team is good enough that they will never allow the players to NOT meet their expectations.

GAME 2.  No way Miami loses this one.  If they are up a game, they will not want to go back to New York tied 1-1, with the Garden crowd potentially swinging the momentum in the Knicks's favor.  If they lose the first game, they will play with even more desperation so that they will not be swept.  Lebron gets a triple double with at least 40 points on this one.

GAME 1.  As you may have gleaned from the previous paragraphs, this sets the tone for the rest of the series.  I do not know what to expect.  I am so excited for this game that I cannot form any rational thoughts.  This is a 50/50 game yet again.  Yes, Miami is playing at home, but I anticipate the New York fans to be so loud that it will be hard to tell which team is at home if not for the logo at center court.  So many variables to this game.  Do the Knicks come out guns blazing, three pointers at the ready, or will they come out flat?  With two superstars, a stellar defense and the expectations of the biggest market in the NBA, do they become the heroes that they were signed to be?  I cannot sit still to even blog about it.

To recap, from game 1 to 7, I have 50/50, Miami, Knicks, 50/50, Miami, Knicks, Miami.  This means Miami in 5 or 7; or the Knicks in 6.  I feel Miami in 5 is the lowest probability.  The Knicks have too much pride and Carmelo has been playing too well recently to win only one game, especially playing two games at home and in a Miami market that has been kind to them in the past.  That leaves Knicks in 6 or Miami in 7.  Honestly, if I were a betting man, I would have to go with Miami in 7.  I do not think the Knicks have established enough of an identity to take the pivotal games.  They are a team that loves to hover around the .500 mark so they will allow Miami to come back if they have a lead.  But...if Carmelo transcends and becomes the player we want him to be...if he maintains his offensive firepower, keeps playing defense and rebounding...takes that next step like Pierce did in '08, Nowitzki in '11...then he will be the greatest Knick ever in my eyes.  Screw it, Knicks in 6, and then a march to the finals.  Mark it (for now, and I will update soon to boast or make a lot of excuses).

To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.