To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.
As we all know by now, our beloved, yet flawed Knicks team will be
entering the first round of the NBA playoffs playing the Miami Heat. As
we entered the final weeks of the regular season there were a lot of
matchup speculation and many tried to pick the best team for the Knicks
to meet in the first round. Like it or not, it will be the Miami Heat.
This may not have been the matchup everyone thought was best, but it is
definitely the matchup all of us want to see. I am not going to dive
too deep into the pairings, whether Melo and LBJ cancel each other out,
if Amare has an advantage over Bosh, or even if Shumpert and Chandler
can maintain the level of excellent defense they have exhibited all
season. You can read all those articles on ESPN.
The only thing that I hope the Knicks work on is their third quarter
play. This is what gave away the game on April 3rd versus Indiana. It
is when Miami pulled away on April 15th and almost lost leads on April
17th against Boston and then 5 days later against Atlanta. I do not
mind losing hard fought games by a point or being blown out by twenty,
but it is painful to watch your team build a comfortable lead and then
have the other team come out of the gates in the second half to close
the gap. If the Knicks can fix that, they have a chance against any
team they face.
I see most predictions stating that Miami will win in either 5 or 6.
I will analyze it game by game, working backwards starting with game
7. The playoff format will be 2-2-1-1-1 with Miami being the first and
last stop.
GAME 7. I do not see the Knicks winning this one in Miami. They
have not been consistent enough on the road to give me faith in this.
Additionally, Lebron plays New York really well, and we will not see a
LBJ collapse in the fourth quarter on this one. However, this will be a
crazy game and it will come down to the wire. I expect a couple
thrown, but missed, elbows (of course unintentional). Wade will pull it
out in the end, probably on free throws.
GAME 6. How can any analyst predict the Knicks would lose the series
in game 6? If they make it this far, the collective will of New York
fans will single-handedly take this game. There is no way they would
allow anything otherwise. There is nothing more to say on this one.
GAME 5. Like game 7, I do not see the Knicks winning this one. In
the unlikely scenario that they are up 3-1, the Knicks will not have the
wherewithal to clinch it in game 5 when they can wait until game 6 at
home (they will want to win it in front of the Garden crowd almost as
much as the fans). If the situation were reversed and Miami was up 3-1,
no way do they want to go back to the garden. They need to finish the
Knicks off and start worrying about the next round, which will probably
be up against a young Pacers team with no fear because they will fall
into the "just happy to be there" case. If it is tied 2-2, Miami's
playing at home and its playoff experience will pull them through.
GAME 4. This is a 50/50 game. Too hard to tell. Either Miami runs
the Knicks out of the Garden or the Novak/JR Smith discount double check
unconscious three pointers go wild and they shoot lights out. Gun to
head, I would probably pick Miami on this one.
GAME 3. This is game 6 except with slightly more anticipation and a
hint of desperation for the MSG crowd. Going with the Knicks on this
one. If they even show a remote sign of slipping, the fans will get the
Knicks back on track. The fans think this team is good enough that
they will never allow the players to NOT meet their expectations.
GAME 2. No way Miami loses this one. If they are up a game, they
will not want to go back to New York tied 1-1, with the Garden crowd
potentially swinging the momentum in the Knicks's favor. If they lose
the first game, they will play with even more desperation so that they
will not be swept. Lebron gets a triple double with at least 40 points
on this one.
GAME 1. As you may have gleaned from the previous paragraphs, this
sets the tone for the rest of the series. I do not know what to
expect. I am so excited for this game that I cannot form any rational
thoughts. This is a 50/50 game yet again. Yes, Miami is playing at
home, but I anticipate the New York fans to be so loud that it will be
hard to tell which team is at home if not for the logo at center court.
So many variables to this game. Do the Knicks come out guns blazing,
three pointers at the ready, or will they come out flat? With two
superstars, a stellar defense and the expectations of the biggest market
in the NBA, do they become the heroes that they were signed to be? I
cannot sit still to even blog about it.
To recap, from game 1 to 7, I have 50/50, Miami, Knicks, 50/50,
Miami, Knicks, Miami. This means Miami in 5 or 7; or the Knicks in 6. I
feel Miami in 5 is the lowest probability. The Knicks have too much
pride and Carmelo has been playing too well recently to win only one
game, especially playing two games at home and in a Miami market that
has been kind to them in the past. That leaves Knicks in 6 or Miami in
7. Honestly, if I were a betting man, I would have to go with Miami in
7. I do not think the Knicks have established enough of an identity to
take the pivotal games. They are a team that loves to hover around the
.500 mark so they will allow Miami to come back if they have a lead.
But...if Carmelo transcends and becomes the player we want him to
be...if he maintains his offensive firepower, keeps playing defense and
rebounding...takes that next step like Pierce did in '08, Nowitzki in
'11...then he will be the greatest Knick ever in my eyes. Screw it,
Knicks in 6, and then a march to the finals. Mark it (for now, and I
will update soon to boast or make a lot of excuses).
To read more thoughts from Jason on the Knicks, continue to check here or on his site, http://www.malajas.com/knicks.
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