I wanted to get a post in before game 3 started on Sunday (6/17/2012). I just want to say that this has been the epic matchup that we have all been waiting for and it has been evident in the ratings. A whopping 16.7 million viewers tuned in to watch game 2 of the Finals. Just to give you some perspective, American Idol is regularly the top watched show and it drew 15 million and 21 million in the last two shows of its latest season. If you are one of those people that does not watch basketball, I suggest you turn on the TV this Sunday and give it a try. In my mind, this is reaching the point like the World Cup in soccer or even the Olympics. We would never watch these sports regularly, but it is reaching the point where a bit of history is being made. True greatness is happening right before our very eyes and you do not want to miss out. You will either be seeing LeBron James or Kevin Durant win their first championship. Both of these players are the ones who will be carrying the torch (so to speak) for the NBA in the upcoming years and will be entering the conversation of greatest ever in a short time. This is like watching Tiger Woods win his first Masters or Michael Jordan win his first NBA Finals. It is not to be missed.
I still believe Thunder will win this series, but it most likely hinges on game 3. As I stated in a prior post, the winner of game 3 will win the series abot 80% of the time. And in a series such as this one, statistics matter. This will be a hotly contested series and will most likely go to seven games. The winner of game 3 will have the advantage the other team will not be able to dig themselves out of. That being said, here are my reasons:
1. Kevin Durant has scored 17 and 16 points in games 1 and 2, respectively. Meanwhile he has only scored 32 and 36 points. It feels like he is deferring to his teammates early on, but look for him to take over earlier. He must know now that he cannot be stopped and will score at least 40 points twice. I expect a 50+ point masterpiece from him at least one of these times.
2. We have seen LeBron and Wade's all in this series. They have carried the load and do not have much more. Their teammates will not continue shooting at these high levels which will leave it all in LeBron and Wade's hands. I just do not think they have anything left.
3. OKC is more fun. They can play both ends of the floor better and have proven it. They just need to play for the whole game.
4. It seems like OKC is on a mission. Last year, when Dallas won the Western Conference finals, Dirk Nowitzki went through the motions and accepted the trophy, but he left shortly after. You could tell that he was not satisfied. The same with OKC and their supporting cast. When game 1 ended, Kevin Durant went to the sidelines and hugged his friends and family. They had just won game 1 of the NBA Finals, something new to them and had never happened before in OKC. A joyous occasion right? Not to them. Not one of them even cracked a smile. When kids come home from school after an uneventful day, they are greeted by smiling parents. Kevin Durant's family did not express any emotion. Like Durant, they know there is a mission, and that is an NBA championship.
The NBA Finals Curse
In sports, there are a lot of superstitions. Some seem to be true, like the Madden curse or the Sports Illustrated Jinx. When we were going through the Dwightbacle, or Dwight Howard's inability to give his team a firm commitment. One commentator suggested that the Orlando Magic were cursed. The Magic reached the promise land in both 1995 and 2009 lead by their All-Star centers, but were promptly dispatched by the eventual champions in just a few games. They then never went back to the Finals with Shaquille O'Neal or Dwight Howard and the stars eventually left (assuming Howard leaves soon). I decided to check and see if there was, in fact, a curse. Did the losers of the NBA Finals retool a little too much and send their teams on a downward spiral? It is hard to imagine a team that comes so close one year, but then collapses a couple years later. Let us take a look:
NBA Finals Losing Teams 1999 - 2011
| Year | Team | A Few Years Later |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | New York Knicks | 12/22/2003. The day Isiah Thomas was hired as President of Basketball Operations. The franchise goes in a tailspin |
| 2000 | Indiana Pacers | 11/29/2004 Malice in the Palace - 9 players suspended for 146 games |
| 2001 | Philadelphia 76ers | Coach Larry Brown leaves in 2003, coming back to defeat them in 2005 and then going on to win a championship. Best player Allen Iverson demands a trade in 2006 |
| 2002,2003 | New Jersey Nets | Jason Kidd leaves in 2008, Kenyon Martin traded to Nuggets in 2004, Richard Jefferson stayed until 2008, although many injuries. Now they have to deal with Kris Humphries and his recent divorce with a Kardashian |
| 2004 | Los Angeles Lakers | Shaquille O'Neal leaves in 2006. Kobe accused of sexual assault in 2003, goes to trial in 2004. |
| 2005 | Detroit Pistons | Ben Wallace leaves for more money to the Bulls, the beginning of the end |
| 2006 | Dallas Mavericks | Michael Finley leaves to rival Spurs and goes on to win a championship |
| 2007 | Cleveland Cavaliers | July 8, 2010 - The Decision, LeBron goes from a favorite player to a villain overnight |
| 2008 | Los Angeles Lakers | Not much, one of few losing teams to come back and win a championship shortly after |
| 2009 | Orlando Magic | Dwightbacle happened, Howard expected to be traded or leave in 2012 or 2013 |
| 2010 | Boston Celtics | Big Three breaking up in 2012 |
| 2011 | Miami Heat | Too early to tell |
Looking through this list, not every team went the route of a complete implosion. However, it does appear that the losing teams made a large portion of the negative storylines for the NBA in the last 13 years. Losing stars to free agency or demanded trades seems to be a prominent headline as well, ranging from a seemingly quiet move such as Ben Wallace leaving Detroit to LeBron's decision which became a prime time special on TV. With a few exceptions, such as the Lakers and Mavs, there really is no plan B, and the teams suffer in the division cellars for quite some time. There is no distinguishable pattern except that reaching the top game does shine a certain light on you and many do not deal well. One thing is for certain, and a lesson I learned in third grade: some lose and learn from it, while others just cry about it. Oh yeah, and losing sucks.
