The first two months of the Knicks season has wrapped up with the Knicks at a very respectable 22 and 10 record (through 1/4/13). I went back and took a look at how the K-Gang did, comparing it to the Knicks and my expectations overall. Details for the K-Gang are here if you would like to find out more about our little contest and standings are updated at least weekly here.
As a group, I was surprised that we did so well in the first quarter of the season (20 games). It may have been because we were optimistic about the Knicks and they proceeded to start out of the gate hot, being the last team to lose their undefeated status, but we finished the quarter at a respectable 58% correct rate against the spread. Since then we have come back down to earth, only posting a 39% correct rate. I went through our picks and if we picked the Knicks more than 50% (5 or more out of 8), we only posted a 13 and 12 out of a possible 32 games. There were 7 even splits which yield a "no decision" (nd). However, if there were at least 6 picks for a team in any given game, the K-Gang posted a 10 and 6 record. Not too bad.
The fortunes of the K-Gang and the Knicks look to be closely related. After a great November start, the Knicks seemed to regress a little. Part of that was their 3 point shooting percentages came down drastically, but this may have been due to the many injuries they sustained. In the chart below, you can see the Knicks points for (PF) and points against (PA) had a decent difference throughout the first four weeks but the gap would close as the month of December and their averages for the last two weeks were very close to league average. Hopefully, the team stays healthy in the new year and makes another run like we saw in November. It certainly is more fun when the Knicks are winning.
Back to the K-Gang. Because the spreads only come out the day of the game and the K-Gang did not want to check in every day for a game, we opted to pick the games only once a week. For this reason, the spreads were calculated internally and could vary from the spreads at gametime. One major cause of the difference, besides the inexperience of calculating spreads, was the inability to accurately factor in injuries. There was a lot more variability in estimated to actual spread as the season moved on. This could have contributed to the K-Gang being less accurate in their picks for the month of December. I would wager that underestimating Raymond Felton's contribution played a major part of that as well. He was playing great until he went down with a broken finger.
Nonetheless, there was some consistency to the K-Gang and that is the current leader. Justin has ended the week either on top or with a share of the top spot for 7 out of the 8 weeks. He led the league with a 12 and 3 record for the month of November punctuated with a 9 game winning streak at one point. Naturally, he was the easy choice for KMOTM (K-Man of the Month). As stated, December was a little rougher. We had co-KMOTM winners in Beau and John T, but they only finished the months with an 8 and 7 and a 6 and 9 record (note: record is not the only factor for KMOTM), respectively.
All in all, these two months have been a good time. I reconnected with some friends that I have not spoke to in awhile and am a little more consistent with the other people on the list. I am hoping that we improve in our picks as this year goes on and a possible increase in K-membership next season or even for the second half of this season. Here's to a fun 2013.
